Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Publication date: October 1988
ISBN: 9781451953084
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Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , International - Economics , commodity prices , inflation , inflation rate , price inflation , excess demand

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