A Vicious Cycle: How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest

Author: Sedik Tahsin Saadi and Xu Rui

Volume/Issue: Volume 2020 Issue 216

Publication date: October 2020

ISBN: 9781513559162

$18.00

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Topics covered in this book

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Economics- Macroeconomics , Covid-19 , Pandemics , Inequality , Social Unrest , WP , pandemic event , panel VAR model , disorder score , panel vector autoregressions , pandemic dummy , net Gini coefficient , Income inequality , Vector autoregression , Communicable diseases , Global

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Summary

In this paper we analyze the dynamics among past major pandemics, economic growth, inequality, and social unrest. We provide evidence that past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. We also find that higher social unrest, in turn, is associated with lower ourput and higher inequality, pointing to a vicious cycle. Our results suggest that without policy measures, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely increase inequality, trigger social unrest, and lower future output in the years to come.