Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2024 Issue 112
Publication date: June 2024
ISBN: 9798400277818
$20.00
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Topics covered in this book

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Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , Environmental Economics , Natural Disasters , Public Policy- Environmental Policy , Demography , conflict , temperature , precipitation , climate change , weather shock , conflict intensity , IMF working paper No , 24/112 , impact of weather , precipitation shock , Natural disasters , Food security , East Africa , Middle East

Summary

Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.