COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows

Author: Kalemli-Ozcan Sebnem

Volume/Issue: Volume 2020 Issue 133

Publication date: July 2020

ISBN: 9781513550183

$18.00

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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Demography , WP , stimulus package , open economy , inflation rate , COVID-19 , Debt Monetisation , External Finance , SIR , Input-Output Tables , Emerging Markets , economic cost , monetary policy , foreign currency , debt monetization , supply and demand , total output , utility function , swap line , Demand elasticity , Global , closed economy , Unconventional monetary policies

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Summary

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.