Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts : Some Cross-Country Evidence

We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries' growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
Publication date: June 2011
ISBN: 9781455263424
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Economics- Macroeconomics , Economics / General , International - Economics , recessions , banking crises , recession , forecasting , confidence intervals , standard deviations , statistics , equation , standard deviation , statistical tests , standard errors , dummy variable , correlation , crisis episodes , econometrics , martingale , descriptive statistics , sur

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