Republic of Kazakhstan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kazakhstan

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2022 Issue 113

Publication date: April 2022

ISBN: 9798400205040

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Topics covered in this book

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Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Money and Monetary Policy , Public Finance , Business and Economics - Statistics , International - Economics , foreign currency lending , IMF TA , lending in the economy , Kazakh authorities , oil export capacity , Inflation , Government finance statistics , Fiscal stance , Global , Central Asia and the Caucasus

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Summary

Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.