Tajikistan’s economic performance remains favorable as remittance inflows and
public investment continue to support domestic demand but there is uncertainty over
the outlook in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions. Public debt is sustainable
but sizeable investment needs constrain fiscal space, and the risk of debt distress
remains high due to upcoming Eurobond repayments. Adherence to a deficit target of
2.5 percent of GDP is essential to anchor debt sustainability, while advancing reforms to
increase space for priority social and development spending. The authorities have
requested a twenty-two-month arrangement under the Policy Coordination Instrument
(PCI) to anchor macroeconomic policies and foster inclusive growth. Staff supports the
request for the new arrangement. The Letter of Intent and Program Statement set out
policies to support the program’s objectives.