World Economic Outlook, October 2022

Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2022 Issue 002

Publication date: October 2022

ISBN: 9798400218439

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Topics covered in this book

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Economics- Macroeconomics , International - Economics , growth , growth outlook , global recession , adverse scenario , output gap , output losses , COVID-19 , pandemic , scarring , inflation , core inflation , inflation expectations , monetary policy , financial conditions , debt distress , sovereign spreads , fiscal policy , disinflation , food and energy prices , Russian gas supplies , pandemic , war in Ukraine , current account , dollar strength , capital flows , China real estate sector , fragmentation , multilateral cooperation , climate change , climate policies , Wages , wage dynamics , wage-price spirals , inflation , labor markets , expectations , monetary policy , interest rates , nominal wages , real wages , unemployment , tightness , supply-demand imbalances , COVID-19 , pandemic , recovery , de-anchoring , Phillips curve , pass-through , demand shocks , supply shocks , supply-chain shocks , sectoral shocks , monetary policy shocks , cost-push shocks , expectations formation , rational expectations , adaptive expectations , adaptive learning , historical episodes , advanced economies , emerging market economies , climate policy , monetary policy , inflation , energy transition , carbon pricing , macroeconomic model , GMMET , output-inflation tradeoff , GHG taxes , green subsidies , green investment

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Summary

Decades of procrastination have transformed what could have been a smooth transition to a more carbon-neutral society into what will likely be a more challenging one. By the end of the decade, the global economy needs to emit 25 percent less greenhouse gases than in 2022 to have a fighting chance to reach the goals set in Paris in 2015 and avert catastrophic climate disruptions. Using a new model developed at the IMF (GMMET), the chapter analyses the near-term macroeconomic impact of feasible decarbonization policies and potential challenges for monetary policy.